Saturday forecast

BigEdV · Post by **BigEdV** » Thu Jul 15, 2021 8:46 pm

So have only managed to get out a few times this year due to weather, boat issues, life. Looking to go out Saturday most likely out of NB since it seems that is where the silver seem to be around right now. I tend to have the worst forecast predictions when it comes to waves so just curious what more experienced people are seeing as far as wave forecasts this Saturday. I am seeing anything from 1.5' to 3'; the 1.5 footers are fine but when we start getting to 3' it gets less fun. Also it seems when I see 3' they are more like 5' and my luck the last two years seems to be working against me. Let me know what others think as far as waves and if New Buffalo is a good beat for chasing some silver. I would go to St. Joe if it was a much better bet but trying to save myself an extra 30+ minutes drive. Thanks all and hopefully I can start to get out again and post some good reports.

Grateful Phisher · Post by **Grateful Phisher** » Fri Jul 16, 2021 4:43 am

I’ve found this year has been hit or miss with the wave reports. The last couple weekends they’ve called for 1’ or less and when I got out there it’s been 2-4’+ which makes for a long ride out to the state line if at all. In the past month alone I’ve got out, saw the reality of the waves and turned around to come back and fight the fish another day. I’m seeing the same reports as you are right now and the weekend looks good Sunday being the better day. Good luck out there and be safe

Post by **Tmik34** » Fri Jul 16, 2021 8:25 am

Ed, Saturday looks rough, 10+ from the N and building as the morning goes on. Sunday looks good depending on what model your looking at. The Europen model (most common) says N 10+ again but the Nam (NOAA) says light and variable for Sunday which is good. If I was trying to go out this weekend I would count Sat out and shoot for Sunday with a watchful eye on the models to see if they line up or not. The next Euro update comes out around 2pm central I believe.

Post by **bob** » Fri Jul 16, 2021 8:53 am

There's fish being caught near 3 corners if you go out of Portage.

SteveK · Post by **SteveK** » Fri Jul 16, 2021 9:00 am

Tmik, if you look at the graphical forecast, Sunday is somewhat iffy for a smaller boat depending on whether the wind is 10kt on the south end like this says

Post by **Tmik34** » Fri Jul 16, 2021 9:03 am

Your right Steve but the models are saying different things. Euro is saying what you are saying but NAM (north American model) is showing light and variable. I would wait till the next update around 2pm to see if they line up more one direction.

Trent · Post by **Trent** » Fri Jul 16, 2021 9:35 am

One thing I learned: when they forecast 1 to 3 foot waves that's from a flat surface, it doesn't take into account the valley created by waves.

Pikesmith · Post by **Pikesmith** » Fri Jul 16, 2021 10:04 am

Who knows on the wind forecast seems to be changing by the hour from doable to not and back. Hopefully one of the two days will be favorable.
As far as NB the fishing for silvers hasn’t been great most of the year (hit or miss) particularly the last month. I haven’t heard much out of SJ but assume it isn’t a whole lot better(I could be wrong). The best silver fishing seems to be from Michigan City west.

SteveK · Post by **SteveK** » Fri Jul 16, 2021 1:07 pm

Tmik what I posted is NOAA.

Can you link me to the euro model? I'd like to check it.

Or is NOAA using euro model? If so can you point me to the NAM one?

Post by **Dirty** » Fri Jul 16, 2021 2:08 pm

NOAA uses the GFS model. I would consider both the Euro and NAM model to be more accurate for winds on LM, but each have their days. Windfinder, and I think fish weather also use the GFS model. While the GFS model is a good model, it tends to be less effective near terrain our out of the ordinary things due to its resolution and its operational parameters. Note that the NAM model is only available inside 48 hours.

Use windy. You can go to the the weather section on this site, pick a port area, and scroll to the bottom of the page. You can change the layers you look at, from wind, to storms, temps, radar etc. You can also change which weather model you look at. While this is all here on this site, its probably better to go to windy.com or get the app for your phone.

I would say tomorrow might be ok (slightly rough) or pretty bad depending on which model is right. Its only when all the models agree that I have a high confidence of what to expect out there.

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