I posted this in another thread but will put it here for maximum visibility
To build on the official press release, I'd like to share a bit more in-depth why the decision was made. The chinook allocation for Indiana moving forward is only 45,000 fish.
Given such a low number, we have been strategizing on how best to use our available hatchery space for some time now. 45,000 chinooks is less than a single hatchery raceway, and we have been seeing poor returns even when stocking 200,000 kings prior to this upcoming cut. I’d like to share a bit of our process and some of the data we have been looking at given the new chinook allocation for 2017 and beyond.
First, a primer on the composition of kings caught in Indiana. Thanks to the Mass Marking Program, we know that during the open-water fishery (March-August), 68% of the kings caught by Indiana fishermen have been of wild origin from 2013-2016. These are fish that were born in Michigan rivers like the Pere Marquette, Betsie, Muskegon, and so forth, and also the Canadian waters of Lake Huron. Those fish all come to Lake Michigan to feed since the collapse of the Lake Huron alewife populations. In recent history, the % wild has fluctuated between 63% and 75% depending on the year. I know anglers are seeing the same thing, because our numbers have lined up nearly identically to the poll conducted last year and this year on TheSouthEnd. With 68% of the catch being wild fish over the past 3 years, that means 32% are stocked fish. Of the 32% of kings that are stocked, 10% of those have been from Indiana. So the TOTAL proportion of Indiana-stocked kings caught in Indiana waters by boats is 3.2% (10% Indiana fish of the 32% stocked = 3.2% total). I know that this seems shocking that only 3% of the kings you catch are stocked by Indiana. BUT, in terms of data it is not surprising at all, as Indiana stocked 11% of the kings lakewide, and of stocked fish, 10% of them were of Indiana origin – exactly what we would expect given stocking numbers.
Over the past few years, we have seen a drastic decline in the return of Chinooks to the fall fishery. I am sure you have noted it as well. From creel surveys of angler catch, we estimate about a 0.25% return to streams, with an average of only 500 chinooks caught over the past couple years. That number has been trending downward every year since 2013, despite stocking in our waters being relatively constant.
The number of chinooks caught in open water fishery in Indiana has averaged about 5,000 fish per year since 2013 (also trending down last couple years). Calculating the boat fishery catch of Indiana chinooks (3% Indiana origin of 5,000 chinooks), that is less than 200 Indiana-origin chinooks caught by our trollers. Adding in 500 for shore anglers and harbor patrol boaters (probably extremely generous based on creel estimates and angler anecdotes) we get a total 1200 kings out of an average of 200,000 stocked. A total return of 0.6% to Indiana anglers. Even if we be generous and almost double that to a 1% return to Indiana fishermen, that means under our 45,000 chinook allocation, Indiana anglers would only catch 450 kings stocked by Indiana. Split between 3 ports, those numbers are bordering on completely meaningless.
Hatchery Logistics
We have been having difficulty obtaining coho and chinook eggs from our usual source (Michigan), and had to go to Wisconsin last year for chinooks, and got shorted on Coho (lots of uncertainty involved with obtaining eggs from out of state). In contrast, we control the Skamania broodstock through collections in Trail Creek and in the St. Joseph River in South Bend. That allows us to full flexibility and control of our own destiny, rather than drawing the short straw when it comes to getting eggs from Wisconsin or Michigan (they fulfill their salmon egg quotas first, before we get additional eggs).
Our Preferred Decision Given All The Challenges
Given that 45,000 chinooks would not even be a full hatchery raceway, and that returns of them would be so miniscule, there would be very limited benefit to any mode of fishing in Indiana. With an approximate return of 5% on Skamania steelhead, and their availability to all 3 fishing modes, we estimate that raising an additional 45,000 to 50,000 skamania steelhead to yearling size in the space previously allocated for our Chinook stocking would result in an additional 2000 to 2500 steelhead caught by Indiana fishermen, in comparison to less than 500 chinooks. In our angler surveys, Skamania are the 2nd most popular fish (behind Chinooks) and are Indiana’s flagship fishery.
We believe that this MUCH higher return of Skamania, coupled with being able to ensure egg collection on our own terms, means it is the best use of our hatchery resources going forward, until chinook quota is raised.