I was writing an article for a Michigan magazine last year and talking to a Michigan biologist. He said the lake trout eat 95% of all the gobies in Lakes Michigan and Huron EVERY YEAR! Hard to believe a population can survive at that level of exploitation. Seems like a few specimens ought to live long enough to die of old age. Hard to believe the 5% of the survivors can repopulate the lake to the point the amount of gobies showing up in predator fish diets is even measurable.
The biologist was probably talking about total mortality, not really possible to separate out how many would die of old age vs how many get eaten. But the high mortality is why the top-end size has gone from 6-8 inches down to most fish being under 5 inches. They're so prolific that they are persisting despite everything eating them, from bass to whitefish to lake trout to browns
This is probably the research that was being referenced
experts.illinois.edu/en/publications/age...an-with-preliminary-
Takeaway was:
Based on catch curve analysis, estimates of annual mortality rates ranged from 0.79 to 0.84. These relatively high mortality rates suggested that round gobies may be under predatory control in Lake Michigan.
One does have to wonder if their population is sustainable at that level of exploitation. Not that I'm suggesting a return to millions of 6+ inch gobies that are too big for perch and bass to eat, that are incredible nuisances for perch anglers... but gobies are a significant portion of the forage base for quite a few different desireable fish species.
I think Mike's right with the theory that these fish are adults that came to spawn, and then stayed because of favorable food and water temps. There are typically very few wild fish or small fish in the mix during the winter, and most of the tag returns we've looked at have been legacy Indiana stockings from awhile ago. In fact, there are VERY few wild fish ever picked up by our late fall or early spring netting. And then all of a sudden the summer collection of angler-caught fish are 40% wild - so those wild fish are not sticking around Indiana waters overwinter for whatever reason. I would speculate that they are overwintering near their natal origin (Illinois reefs most likely)
Btw, a lot of the "alewife" pictures from lake trout bellies this time of year turn out to be juvenile gizzard shad. Lots of them in the Port and other harbors and tribs. Usually the lake trout we catch in the fall are stuffed with 2-4 inch shad, along with gobies and a smattering of random other fish. Occasionally you'll find alewife but it's not terribly common compared to gizzard shad.