TOPIC:

Came across this today, figured I'd share.

www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-met-lake-...20180913-story.html#

Pretty funny, author doesn't know what he is talking about.

Seemed like most of the article was quoting information from expert sources or fisherman and wasn't the journalist's opinions? Are you saying the author(s) of the Purdue University report don't know what they are talking about?

yes

I think there are some valid concerns here but I am disappointed this article sounds like a global warming scare piece. I see little to no data to support this position. The feeling I get is that they are extrapolating data from the recent water warming trend to some end point and signaling catastrophe.

I think we can all agree that more warm water is bad for our fishery. Is the reason the lake is warmer due to some warmer summers in the midwest lately and sunlight penetrating deeper depths because of the clarity? Probably so and with the water a bit warmer, we probably have a new normal. I personally dont see the lake continuing to warm. I also think the fishery will be just fine, although I am sure opinions will be all over on this one.

I like that we have concerned fishermen. Had the article been written from MSU I believe it would read differently. Actually the lake has been colder the past two years. When we have normal summer south winds we can get water temps that are very cold here most of the fishing season.
If the article has any truth I will be dead a long time before there is a real issue.
But, as I mentioned, I am glad that Scoffer and others are looking for information associated with the big lake. MSU has some really good information that can be looked up. A concern of disease in our fish is something we should be looking at, and concerned about, such as the disease the lakers now are carrying.

Here's another article from the Sun Times that I presume is referencing the same report.

chicago.suntimes.com/?post_type=cst_article&p=1366907

Here's the Purdue report.

ag.purdue.edu/indianaclimate/aquatic-ecosystems-report/

Thank You sir! Good insight.

Keep in mind a couple things: This is a report, based on a lot of technical work. It's cited in the report -https://ag.purdue.edu/indianaclimate/indiana-climate-report/#data

you can go dig thru those reports for all the technical data if you want. The report posted above is written in plain english so the general public can understand. They didn't just write a scare piece based on opinion, it's based on extensive data and modeling. I'll also point out that there are sections in the report clearly stating there are knowledge gaps and uncertainties. Scare pieces don't use that sort of language.


Relevant takeaways on Lake Michigan:

Observations show that near-surface summer water
temperatures in Lake Michigan have been warming
about 1°F per decade (Collingsworth et al. 2017). By
mid-century, summer water temperatures are projected
to increase about 5°F to 6°F above the historical average (Kao et al. 2015).
Because Lake Michigan is so deep and cold, most fish
species currently have limited thermal habitat available
to them. As waters warm in a changing climate, habitat
suitability may increase for warmwater and coolwater
fish species such as smallmouth bass, yellow perch, and
walleye, as well as for coldwater species such as lake trout,
Chinook salmon, rainbow trout, and lake whitefish.
As near-shore areas and near-surface waters warm, some
species may need to move further offshore or to deeper
waters during warm seasons. As metabolic rates increase
with temperature, fish that end up occupying warmer
water require an increased food supply. Thus, these fish will
need to seek out habitat with adequate light and available
prey to maintain their growth and performance.
As Lake Michigan warms, fish spawning periods may also
shift. Reproductive success for Lake Michigan fishes, such
as yellow perch and lake whitefish, is expected to change
in response to warming temperatures and resulting shifts

The timing of fish spawns and the spring warmup are particularly critical. There's a very short window for yellow perch larva to inflate their air bladder and find phytoplankton, before they starve to death. If they are hatching too early, before a plankton bloom occurs, they can have total failure of entire yearclasses. That's been ongoing for awhile now, and it's possible that future shifts will exacerbate this issue. Or maybe it will help... hard to make predictions, especially about the future. But one thing we do know is that there is a correlation between good perch and whitefish spawns and heavier ice cover.

Ice cover has been generally diminishing for the past 40 years (even though we have had a couple really good ice years in the last decade). The lake will almost certainly continue to warm, because it is a feedback cycle with ice cover. That's the reason the great lakes are warming at a rate much faster than the air temps have been warming. Ice cover and snow reflect energy from the sun (the albedo effect) and prevent the lake from warming. As the lake warms, it ices up later in the year, because it takes a ton of energy to cool down Lake Michigan. As a result, not as much ice will form, and the lake will absorb more energy from the sun, which leads to the lake warming up more than in the past, which leads to less ice cover, which leads to more warming


There are a LOT of uncertain mechanisms at work, and lots of them are probably beyond our capability for prediction when it comes to figuring out what it will mean for the fish. Changes in prevailing wind direction and rising air temperatures could change the magnitude and direction of surface and subsurface currents. That could change the distribution of adult fish, and have consequences for reproduction of broadcast spawners like perch - their larvae might get transported offshore into food deserts, or perhaps they might get transported to more favorable areas.

I'll close by saying that I find it hard to believe as anglers, we continue to express skepticism about the capacity for rapid and widespread change of a huge ecosystem, especially since we've all witnessed the drastic change in the fishery over the past 30 years.

Think about what the lake looked like 30 years ago in 1988. Zebra mussels were just being discovered. Alewife biomass was high. Bloater biomass was high. No natural reproduction of salmonids to speak of was happening. Lots of smelt. Water clarity was mediocre. The salmon and perch fisheries were pretty darn good

Now Lake Michigan is clearer than Lake Superior and the fishery is completely different.

Heck, think back another 30 years prior to 1958. There were practically no predators left in the lake, tons of alewifes, the salmon fishery was about a decade away from even being a thing. The lake was polluted and nasty.

That's two complete wholesale revolutions in terms of the Lake Michigan ecosystem, each over a 30 year time period. Is it really that crazy to think that in another 30 years down the line there will be more wholesale changes? I think you're fooling yourself if you don't think more change is coming! I know we'd all prefer if wholesale changes dit NOT happen, or if there was no uncertainty... but to do so is to ignore reality

Thank You Ben!!!